Many home buyers today are still wondering whether it's time to jump into the housing market. After all, it would be great to wait until the perfect moment when prices, inventory, and interest rates all converge and the stars align, right? There's a weakness in that thought process, though, because trying to "time" the housing market is as difficult and risky as trying to do the same thing in the stock market. Those that try it usually end up disappointed. Even so, the stars may actually be pretty lined-up right now in many real estate markets.
One of the leading indicators we watch is the national Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row now, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. This is an indication that buyers are, or at least should be recognizing the signs by now.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 3.7 percent to 114.1 from 110.0 in September, and is 31.8 percent above October 2008 when it was 86.6. The rise from a year ago is the biggest annual increase ever recorded for the index, which is at the highest level since March 2006 when it was 115.2.
On a local level in Boulder and Broomfield Counties, the median price of a sold listing has remained relatively flat over the past 12 months. For residential re-sale properties from November '08 through November '09, the median price stood at $337,500 - up a modest 2% year over year (Source: IRES MLS). The MSI, or months' supply of inventory, is actually down 32% over the same time period to an average of 7.7 months at the end of November '09.
These stats can vary significantly from neighborhood to neighborhood, so be sure to consult with your Realtor® if you would like to see what your specific market looks like, but in general these are encouraging numbers. It remains a good time to buy a Boulder home, with interest rates remaining at historic lows, the possible federal tax credit for 1st time buyers and many other buyers as well, and home prices at attractive levels.
The Boulder real estate market has fared better than most across the country and was recently recognized as the "Strongest Market in the Country" by BusinessWeek Magazine, with the highest projected ratio of homes that have increased in value over the last year (60%). Also recently named as the #3 real estate market in the country "...poised for recovery" by Forbes, the Boulder real estate market may just be the place where the stars have aligned for home buyers.
For more information about Boulder real estate or to contact Phil, visit www.BoulderHomeResource.com.
Phil Boren
Your Boulder Home Resource!
(C) Copyright 2010 - Phil Boren. All Rights Reserved.
_________________________________________________________________
Subscribe To My Blog
Office: 303-449-7000 Cell: 720-579-8800
pboren@remax.net
Boulder Real Estate
Welcome to ActiveRain. With informative content like this, you should enjoy a good following.
While your post won't be seen by the consumers, unless they subscribe to ActiveRain, other members will certainly take notice of your market knowledge.
Networking on ActiveRain can be very profitable.
Thanks for taking the time to comment, Lenn. If you ever have anyone relocating to Colorado, please keep me in mind. Take care.
This is a great topic and one that I get asked about most frequently by our clients. My comments are much like yours and in the area in which I work we have seen inventory levels drop to a point where they are only 37% of where they were just one year ago. Other than investors, I remind our home buyers that they are purchasing a home to live in, to raise their families. A place where memories will be made. If you see the right house BUY IT. You can risk waiting but you may be kicking yourself later.
Interesting information Thanks
It is interesting because buyers have been conditioned for several years now that the sky is falling. Not sure how it could fall for this long . . . but that's fodder for another post. I think this kind of guidance can help some buyers to realize that "no one rings a bell at the bottom"! I think (at least here in Boulder), that 3-5 years from now, many will wish they had bought today. Take care.
Phil, you have summarized the market very well and we can all use that sort of thinking to help our buyers. In my fifteen years in this business I've never seen buyers so reluctant to make a decision. This type of information from all of us can help.
Keep blogging.
Phil, nice post and good information. Why do you think Boulder has been such a strong market.
Hi Phil -- It would be nice to know what the variable(s) are that are driving the PHSI index to see how much of an impact the 1st-time home buyer index.
Phil,
Welcome to Active Rain. Getting a feature on your very first post is a little like getting a walk-off grand slam on your firts major league at bat. Congrats and keep it up. :)
Steve
Thanks, Steve I'm not sure how that happened! Chris, good point - I'm sure the 1st-time buyers are having some effect on the PHSI; many were acting under the assumption of the 11/30 expiration of the credit. James, the Boulder market is viewed as relatively strong in part, I think, because of the weakness in so many other markets. Still, we have some factors in play here that are somewhat unique, i.e., our Open Space Policy. We've historically enjoyed a relatively healthy balance between supply and demand.
Phil,
welcome to active rain. Very good invormation!
Welcome! This should definitely not be a Members Only post - I think the general public would enjoy knowing this information as well!
Nice information. I agree with Lenn I think you'll have a great following with info like this. Welcome to AR.
That is some really good info. Welcome to Active Rain. I love that we still have such low rates
It's definitely a good time to buy here in Massachusetts. We have prime conditions here that make it an opportunity not to be missed.
Thanks for sharing Matt!
I agree it is impossible to say if we've hit the bottom, but I think it is easier to say that we are pretty close.
In fact, home prices in Phoenix has see a slight uptick compared to April. Let's hope the trend continues.
Welcome to AR. I just closed a deal w/ a buyer last week. 4.5% interest rate, $8k tax tebate, 20% discount from list price. Doesn't get any better than right now!
Hi Phil:
Great post. Should be something for consumers to read. BTW, we've got a great open space policy here in Sonoma County and in certain micro-markets, like Sonoma Valley, property values have remained relatively stable thanks to that.
Tes! Now's the time to buy that home!
Phil, Welcome to Active Rain! Active Rain is a great place to share your knowledge, expertise and thoughts, as well as network and learn so much from the vast pool of talent already onboard.
Welcome Aboard and Much Success!